October 28 - November 3, 2024
Palace gold transferred to NBE; Corruption probe in Guji; Child Labor in Jimma; GBV spikes; 14.3 ha auctioned off in AA; Amharas disarmed in Wollega; PM Abiy approaches TPLF, TPLF approaches Eritrea.
Business & Finance
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is gearing up to vote on a financing package of up to $20 million in secured loans for leading steel manufacturer Abyssinia Group of Industries (AGI) on Nov 30.
Gelila Manufacturing PLC has commenced production of export-standard shoes & soles at Bole Lemi Industrial Park with an investment capital of ETB 2 billion.
Dodai Manufacturing PLC has expressed frustration over the regulatory landscape in Ethiopia, citing the complexities involved in obtaining necessary permits, including number plates for electric motorbikes.
The Customs Commission has authorized companies operating in various industrial parks & importing raw materials through the Franco Valuta scheme to use electronic shipping documents such as the Telex Release & Sea Waybill documents as valid transportation documents.
The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) has introduced a new pricing mechanism for coffee sold on its trading floor, but exporters say the changes don’t reflect the high prices erasing their margins in the domestic market.
The Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS) issued a new tender requiring local manufacturers to quote prices in Birr while foreign suppliers continue quoting in foreign currency, sparking immediate backlash from industry leaders who cite forex shortages & an uneven playing field in the supply chain.
Awash Melkassa Chemical Factory is struggling with client retention & an accumulation of product stock, with over ETB 260 million’s worth of chemicals idle in its warehouses. Clients have raised concerns about quality, packaging & labeling, & high prices.
Ethiopian Airlines (ETH) was recognized as the winner of the “Best Overall in Africa” award at the prestigious 2025 APEX Passenger Choice Awards on Oct 28.
ETH & the National ID Program (NIDP) have signed an MOU to cooperate on integrating their systems to facilitate the use of Fayda ID as a travel document for domestic travel.
3 livestock feed producers have reported losses, reduced production & potential closures due to an additional VAT imposed on animal feed. Factories are seeing raw materials become subject to VAT both in purchasing & selling stages, making it difficult to compete with non-VAT-paying suppliers.
The Addis Ababa City Administration launched its largest land auction to date, offering 14.3 ha of prime real estate to developers & investors from Oct 18-31.
Electric vehicle (EV) owners in Addis Ababa have reported issues ranging from the erratic supply of electricity to the scarcity of spare parts as the country attempts to fully transition to EVs.
Awash Insurance SC reported a record-high premium income of over ETB 1 billion & a 64% growth in profit in the last fiscal year during its Oct 26 General Assembly.
Dashen Bank has reported record profits of ETB 4.8 billion over the last fiscal year & a net gain of ETB 129.34 million in forex operations despite liquidity constraints.
Zemen Bank reported a net profit of ETB 2.39 billion for the 2016 fiscal year, up 32% from the previous year, while gross profit grew 36.8% to a record 3.77 billion.
NIB International Bank has announced the appointment of Mr. Henok Kebede, former CEO of Amhara Bank, as the CEO of NIB, pending approval from the NBE.
Residents of Wolayta Sodo city, South region reported that the bread factory constructed by the Office of the First Lady in Dec 2022 to tackle bread shortages in the area abruptly suspended operations 2 months ago due to machine malfunctions, the lack of raw materials & a management crisis.
The Ministry of Irrigation & Lowlands (MOIL) is working with financial institutions to expand irrigation infrastructure, with 3 major irrigation projects currently under construction in the Amhara, Oromia & Sidama states expected to play a critical role in advancing commercial agriculture.
Economy & Development
The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) defended the new forex regime in an Oct 29 interview, citing early signs that the reform is achieving its key objectives despite rising inflation.
Global credit rating agency Fitch has upgraded Ethiopia’s Long-Term Local Currency (LTLC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from CCC- to CCC+, while its Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating (LTFR) remains in Restricted Default (RD).
PM Abiy announced a revenue target of ETB 1.5 trillion for the 2017 fiscal year, more than double the initial projection, citing a 24% growth in remittance flows & a 161% increase in forex reserves following the macroeconomic reform, & lauding the economic growth during an Oct 31 Parliamentary session.
NBE has instructed private banks to open letters of credit for fuel imports as of Nov 2024, enlisting them to shoulder a portion of the foreign currency needed for fuel imports.
The World Bank reported that global oil prices will plunge to $73/barrel in 2025 as a massive supply surplus buffers the market from geopolitical disruptions, with oversupply averaging 1.2 million barrels daily & potentially offering relief to Ethiopia as gasoline subsidies are phased out.
PM Abiy announced upcoming adjustments to the Franco Valuta policy during his Oct 31 parliamentary address, saying the policy “does not align” with the macroeconomic reform & is “unsustainable”.
Commercial banks have faced challenges following the implementation of the new VAT Proclamation ratified in July 2024 as tax authorities demand back taxes, interest & penalties from banks for the past 4 months, causing tensions.
The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) launched an online interbank money market platform on Oct 31, allowing commercial banks to conduct short-term borrowing & lending transactions on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX).
PM Abiy Ahmed announced that roughly 400kgs of gold worth around $36 million that was stored at the Jubilee Palace in Addis Ababa has been transferred to the NBE, sparking criticism.
PM Abiy accused unspecified foreign embassies in Addis Ababa of unauthorized forex activities during an Oct 31 parliamentary session, warning the unnamed embassies of government monitoring & possible intervention.
Society & Human Rights
The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC)’s annual report on women & children’s rights has revealed widespread GBV, an increasing incidence of FGM, increasing numbers of abandoned infants & child labor, with children at some primary schools in Jimma forced to work for 10-hour shifts on commercial farms to avoid expulsion & fines.
The Addis Ababa Islamic Affairs Supreme Council (IASC) announced an agreement permitting Muslim students, who had been suspended from 4 schools for wearing the niqab, to return to their studies.
Local police in Nekemte city, Oromia region reported the arrest of 6 individuals suspected of sexually assaulting 2 teenage girls, recording the crime & sharing it on social media in Sept 2024, with 1 additional suspect still being sought. The victims were forced to drop out of school following the attack after facing harassment at school.
The Tigray Regional Women’s Association issued an Oct 31 statement denouncing escalating gender-based violence (GBV) in the Tigray region amidst a lack of psychological support to address war trauma, calling for urgent action & commitment to curb the violence & ensure accountability.
USAID inaugurated a newly renovated Mental Health & Psychosocial Support unit at Axum University’s Hospital to support GBV survivors & local communities affected by conflict. Meanwhile, AI-powered digital avatars are to be trialed for people in India & Ethiopia with auditory hallucinations as researchers try to adapt mental health treatment for effective use in low-resources settings.
EHRC has reported increasing attacks on IDP sites & raised alarm over insufficient efforts to return millions of IDPs to their homes in an Oct 28 report, highlighting that most of the refugees fled identity-based attacks & conflict & are exposed to difficult conditions in camps.
The Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCo) urged authorities to bring those detained from the ongoing Amhara conflict to court, calling on both government forces & armed groups to cease disrupting education amidst ongoing conflicts.
Local CSO CARD issued an Oct 30 statement warning that the civil society space in the country is facing challenges that “threaten its foundation”, highlighting that the Press Freedom Index has dropped significantly in recent years, with over 200 journalists arrested since 2019.
Meskerem Abera, journalist & founder of Ethio Niqat Media, was found guilty of “terrorism” & “using a computer to incite violence” on Nov 1. She was arrested after reporting on the conflict in the Amhara region.
Governance & Corruption
A draft amendment to the media law aims to grant the Ethiopian Media Authority (EMA) the power to suspend, revoke or renew media licenses, & allow the Prime Minister to nominate a candidate for the EMA General Director. The draft also allows political party members to be EMA Board Members.
A draft “General Education Proclamation” tabled to Parliament on Oct 29 proposes mandatory enrollment in 3 language courses: English starting from Grade 1, a federal working language from Grade 3-10, & a 3rd local language to be selected by the student & determined by regional administrations. The draft also seeks to hold educational administrators accountable when the quality of education falls below expected levels & prohibit people convicted of sexual assault from working as teachers.
A draft bill tabled to Parliament proposes to allow the allocation of urban land leases through negotiation, auctions or tenders. The draft also removes previous obligations to reserve at least 20% of land allocated by municipalities for residential housing.
A draft amendment tabled to Parliament on Oct 29 aims to permit the registration of land & immovable property and establish time limits for the verification of land holdings.
The Federal Advocates’ Association approved a “Federal Lawyers’ Disciplinary Proceedings & Litigation Procedure” directive on Oct 23 outlining procedures for investigating & responding to misconduct by lawyers & advocacy organizations.
Teachers across the newly established regions of South, Central & Southwest Ethiopia reported only receiving partial salaries since August 2023 while some have gone entirely unpaid. Meanwhile, health workers in the Central region who haven’t received overtime payment for 6 months have stopped work after locking the hospital & taking the key.
Residents of Shaggar City, Oromia region expressed grievances over the widespread demolition of residential & commercial buildings under the ongoing Road Corridor Development Project (RCDP), saying they were not provided with replacement land, funds for construction, or any compensation.
Oromia’s Attorney General launched a corruption probe into Kenticha Mining Plc (KMP) & African Mining & Energy Plc (AME) over suspicions of embezzlement & fraud involving a large-scale mining venture in the Guji zone. KMP’s general manager & deputy general manager have been detained in Burayu since Oct 19.
The Ethiopian Coffee & Tea Authority has reportedly confiscated over 7.1 tons of export-grade coffee that was allegedly stolen by armed forces in Alem Gena, Oromia region on Oct 27.
The former Mayor of Hawassa city & 2 other co-defendants, who are facing 2 criminal charges related to corruption & fraud, were released on bail on Oct 29.
The Ministry of Innovation & Technology (MOIT) prepared a draft policy to establish a capital fund sourced from private investors, government institutions & development organizations to support the development of startups at different stages of growth.
The Ethiopian Communications Authority has allocated $80 million to repair telecom infrastructure damaged by the 2020-22 war & carry out other related projects.
Humanitarian Needs
Malaria infection rates are soaring in Ethiopia, with over 7.3 million cases & 1157 deaths reported in just the first 10 months of 2024, marking the highest number of annual cases recorded in 7 years. 2.9 million cases were recorded in the last 3 months, with just 1 woreda in the Wolayta zone, South region reporting over 800 daily cases.
3 earthquakes were reported in the Afar region on Nov 1, 2 and 3, with magnitudes ranging from 4.6 to 4.9. Meanwhile, heavy rains caused mudslides in the Sidama, South & Southwest regions this week, resulting in 15 deaths & 5 injuries.
The massive Merkato fire last week lasting over 24 hours destroyed over 550 shops and damaged 2 prominent buildings, devastating traders & exposing the lack of adequate fire safety measures in the market.
Tigrayans who fled to Sudan during the 2020-22 war & have now returned to the Tigray region fleeing the Sudanese civil war have reported that they are not receiving any form of aid. The regional government attributed this to financial constraints & confirmed ongoing efforts to support the returnees.
A local charity reported that the price of dialysis treatment has doubled following the macroeconomic reform, posing serious health risks as patients are forced to reduce the number of treatments.
Politics
Parliament approved the appointment of Foreign Minister (FM) Gedion Timothewos, Justice Minister (JM) Hana Arayaselassie, Tourism Minister (TM) Selamawit Kassa, Minister of Culture & Sports (MOCS) Shewit Shanka, & Minister of Trade & Integration (MOTRI) Kassahun Gofe during its Oct 29 Regular Session. Gedion’s appointment as FM sparked controversy from some MPs who questioned his diplomatic experience & alleged political misuse of the justice system during his previous tenure as JM.
TPLF issued a Nov 1 statement marking the 2nd anniversary of the Pretoria Peace Agreement (PPA) & acknowledging its successes in stopping the war while highlighting that major foundational points remain unfulfilled. TIA President Getachew Reda issued a Nov 2 statement on social media reiterating these points.
TIA President Getachew Reda issued an Oct 25 letter urging the Mekelle City Council to rescind the recent appointment of Mayor Dr. Redae Berhe, saying his appointment lacked legal basis & countered the authority of the TIA. The Mekelle City Council responded in an Oct 27 statement saying that the TIA does not have the authority to remove Mekelle’s mayor from office, citing the PPA.
Leaders of the Tigray Orthodox Church (TOTC) met with TPLF Chairman Debretsion G/Michael & TIA President Getachew Reda to peacefully resolve the differences between the 2 factions.
PM Abiy announced ongoing talks with “some members” of the armed groups operating in the Amhara & Oromia regions during his parliamentary address but admitted that initial peace efforts with the support of elders had fallen short.
PM Abiy reportedly approached the TPLF for a potential alliance against Eritrea while 1 faction of the TPLF allegedly approached Eritrea for a potential alliance to overthrow the federal government, and the other TPLF faction reportedly aims to “maintain ties with the federal government”, sparking fears about a return to war.
The National Dialogue Commission (NDC) began its agenda-collecting dialogue forum in Wolayta Sodo, South region on Oct 28, with about 2000 participants from various sectors in attendance. Agendas presented by attendees include border disputes, conflict & displacement, constitutional amendments, regional restructuring, the national flag, & federal working languages.
The NDC announced that the 11 political parties suspended by the National Election Board (NEBE) last week will continue to participate in the national dialogue process.
CARD released the National Dialogue (ND) Process Activities Assessment Report I on Nov 1, reviewing the inclusivity & transparency of major ND activities taking place from Jan - March 2024.
Conflict & Security
Residents reported active conflict between government forces & the Fano militia in the South Wollo, East Gojjam & Awi zones on Oct 27, resulting in several civilian casualties & injuries. Businesses were closed & transportation was suspended in the East Gojjam & Awi zones following the escalating clashes. Track the 18-month conflict in the Amhara region here.
Over 100 ethnic Amhara civilians have been unlawfully detained in Gurage zone, Central Ethiopia since June 2024 on suspicion of supporting the Fano militia, with detainees reporting severe human rights abuses in detention.
Amharas in the East Wollega zone, Oromia region were told to surrender weapons they had previously bought with government backing to protect against the OLA, with officials saying “only Gachana Sirna & local militias” can carry weapons. Many have since fled to hide in nearby forests, citing repeated identity-based attacks in the area.
Oromia regional forces detained several people & imposed restrictions on movement in the Horro Guduru Wollega zone in response to escalating clashes with the OLA. Meanwhile, residents across Oromia reported chronic network disruptions amidst the ongoing conflict while the OLA reported the capture of over 140 ENDF soldiers & the seizure of arms, & the ENDF reported the surrender or capture of multiple OLA fighters.
Residents of North Shewa zone, Oromia region reported active conflict between government forces and the OLA on Nov 1, resulting in over 45 deaths, including a woreda administrator & several government security personnel. Meanwhile, an Oct 30 OLA attack in the East Shewa zone resulted in at least 38 civilian deaths & the burning of several homes. In other news, unidentified gunmen kidnapped several government employees in the North Shewa zone.
The Ibrahim Index of African Governance revealed that Ethiopia’s score has deteriorated significantly in the “Absence of Armed Conflict”, “Absence of violence against civilians” & “Anti-Corruption” categories. The country ranks 29th in 2023, slightly below the African average.
Geopolitics
BRICS+ members underscored the need to reform the global financial system during the BRICS summit last week. Meanwhile, the IMF & World Bank discussed the role of international financial institutions in the current global geopolitical landscape during their Summit last week. Learn more about the BRICS Summit in this interview.
New BRICS members Argentina, UAE & Ethiopia have reportedly begun mining Bitcoin using government resources, with some experts indicating that this could enable BRICS nations to conduct trade independently of the Dollar’s influence.
The Vice Chairman of China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee met with a delegation of the Prosperity Party (PP) on Oct 29 & reaffirmed the Chinese ruling party’s commitment to “strengthen party-to-party exchanges, deepen practical cooperation & step up international coordination”.
The AU Commission is set to develop a policy paper on emerging threats & security issues, with a Nov 1 communique asserting that a new policy is necessary to safeguard the continent from “renewed Cold War-like geopolitical & ideological competition”.
Somalia expelled Ethiopian diplomat Mohammed Adan on Oct 29, accusing him of violating the Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations & giving him 72 hours to leave the country. This follows escalating regional tensions following the ET-Somaliland MOU.
Somaliland’s President has reaffirmed commitment to the ET-Somaliland MOU, dismissing Somalia’s opposition as irrelevant & depicting the Egypt-Somalia military cooperation as an attempt to undermine Somaliland’s bid for recognition. Meanwhile, an opposition leader in Somaliland commented on the MOU in this interview.
PM Abiy underscored Ethiopia’s commitment to peacefully securing access to the sea during his Oct 31 address to Parliament, citing it as a vital national interest while downplaying fears of regional conflict & affirming Ethiopia’s capacity to “defend itself militarily”.
The UNSC voted on a draft resolution to phase out the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia over the next 2 years on Oct 30, transitioning its responsibilities to the UN Country Team starting Nov 1.
The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has lauded the Ethiopia-Kenya Electricity Highway for shaping regional connectivity with AfDB’s support. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s continued reliance on the Port of Djibouti & the Ethio-Somaliland MOU have impeded Kenya’s efforts to have Ethiopia fully embrace its Lamu Port.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that efforts to evacuate 5 million Ethiopians from Lebanon have been halted due to flight cancellations, with only 125 having arrived so far. Ethiopian domestic workers in Lebanon reported that their employers have fled due to the ongoing war, abandoning them in a critical situation.
Slovenia officially opened an Embassy in Addis Ababa on Nov 1, marking a “new milestone in Slovenian-Ethiopian relations”. Slovenia’s FM also highlighted the need to boost EU-AU cooperation during her visit to Ethiopia.